[{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org\/","@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/www.isale.cz\/pocitace-modeluji-budoucnost-koronaviru\/#Article","mainEntityOfPage":"https:\/\/www.isale.cz\/pocitace-modeluji-budoucnost-koronaviru\/","headline":"Po\u010d\u00edta\u010de modeluj\u00ed budoucnost koronaviru.","name":"Po\u010d\u00edta\u010de modeluj\u00ed budoucnost koronaviru.","description":"Po\u010d\u00edta\u010de simuluj\u00ed situace, co by se mohlo po vypuknut\u00ed nemoci st\u00e1t. V\u011bdci jsou zvykl\u00ed na chyb\u011bj\u00edc\u00ed, zkreslen\u00e9 a ne\u00fapln\u00e9 \u00fadaje a Covid-19, choroba zp\u016fsoben\u00e1 koronavirusy,","datePublished":"2020-03-13","dateModified":"2023-05-25","author":{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/www.isale.cz\/author\/#Person","name":"","url":"https:\/\/www.isale.cz\/author\/","identifier":1,"image":{"@type":"ImageObject","@id":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/dac37d998cdbc92cc7ee5d23d4d689a369122af40c5450007470acab45b61d68?s=96&d=mm&r=g","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/dac37d998cdbc92cc7ee5d23d4d689a369122af40c5450007470acab45b61d68?s=96&d=mm&r=g","height":96,"width":96}},"publisher":{"@type":"Organization","name":"isale.cz","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","@id":"\/logo.png","url":"\/logo.png","width":600,"height":60}},"image":{"@type":"ImageObject","@id":"https:\/\/www.isale.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/img_a372973_w4277_t1584514329.","url":"https:\/\/www.isale.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/img_a372973_w4277_t1584514329.","height":0,"width":0},"url":"https:\/\/www.isale.cz\/pocitace-modeluji-budoucnost-koronaviru\/","about":["IT"],"wordCount":936,"articleBody":"Po\u010d\u00edta\u010de simuluj\u00ed situace, co by se mohlo po vypuknut\u00ed nemoci st\u00e1t. V\u011bdci jsou zvykl\u00ed na chyb\u011bj\u00edc\u00ed, zkreslen\u00e9 a ne\u00fapln\u00e9 \u00fadaje a Covid-19, choroba zp\u016fsoben\u00e1 koronavirusy, kter\u00e1 za\u010dala cirkulovat mezi lidmi koncem minul\u00e9ho roku, je ji\u017e v\u0161ude, kam se pod\u00edv\u00e1te. Tato skute\u010dnost n\u00e1s vede k\u00a0tomu, \u017ee je t\u0159eba odhadnout a odborn\u011b p\u0159edpov\u00eddat, na z\u00e1klad\u011b v\u00fdpo\u010dt\u016f diferenci\u00e1ln\u00edch rovnic, matematick\u00e9 modely vznikaj\u00edc\u00edch ohnisek nemoci a jejich dal\u0161\u00ed roz\u0161i\u0159ov\u00e1n\u00ed. \u00a0V\u011bdci nap\u0159\u00edklad p\u0159i\u0161li na to, \u017ee v\u00a0prvn\u00edch t\u00fddnech vypuknut\u00ed nemoci byl zji\u0161t\u011bn osmin\u00e1sobn\u00fd rozd\u00edl v p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dan\u00fdch p\u0159\u00edpadech Covid-19 ve Wu-chanu, ne\u017e bylo ud\u00e1v\u00e1no.Modely, kter\u00e9 zji\u0161\u0165uj\u00ed p\u0159edpoklad v\u00fdvoje nemoci, se v\u00a0posledn\u00edch letech st\u00e1le zlep\u0161uj\u00ed a \u00fadaje s\u00a0kter\u00fdmi po\u010d\u00edta\u010d pracuje, jsou \u010d\u00edm d\u00e1le bl\u00ed\u017ee realit\u011b. Je t\u0159eba vz\u00edt v\u00a0\u00favahu nap\u0159\u00edklad informace, jak se viry chovaj\u00ed, a\u017e po dobu, kterou lid\u00e9 tr\u00e1v\u00ed v\u00a0autobusech, jak lid\u00e9 \u017eij\u00ed sv\u00e9 \u017eivoty v modern\u00edm sv\u011bt\u011b, od doj\u00ed\u017ed\u011bn\u00ed do pr\u00e1ce po l\u00e9t\u00e1n\u00ed letadlem po cel\u00e9m sv\u011bt\u011b. Nebo co kdy\u017e jsou \u0161koly a pracovi\u0161t\u011b zav\u0159en\u00e1 a co kdy\u017e se zastav\u00ed ve\u0159ejn\u00e1 doprava. Co kdyby existovala \u00fa\u010dinn\u00e1 vakc\u00edna a polovina populace by ji dostala za m\u011bs\u00edc anebo \u00fa\u010dinn\u00e1 vakc\u00edna ani neexistuje.Samotn\u00e9 v\u00fdpo\u010dty u takov\u00fdch slo\u017eit\u00fdch model\u016f mohou trvat n\u011bkolik t\u00fddn\u016f, ne\u017e vyplivnou sv\u00e9 z\u00e1v\u011bry, aby informovaly odborn\u00edky z oboru ve\u0159ejn\u00e9ho zdrav\u00ed, o pravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9m dopadu opat\u0159en\u00ed na kontrolu nemoc\u00ed.Do samotn\u00fdch v\u00fdpo\u010dt\u016f se rovn\u011b\u017e mus\u00ed dostat informace jako je soci\u00e1ln\u00ed izolace pacient\u016f, z\u00e1kaz cestov\u00e1n\u00ed, \u00fa\u010dinn\u00e9 o\u010dkov\u00e1n\u00ed a pou\u017e\u00edv\u00e1n\u00ed obli\u010dejov\u00fdch masek. Je t\u0159eba z\u00e1rove\u0148 posoudit \u00fa\u010dinnost takov\u00fdchto masek, z\u00a0\u010deho jsou vyrobeny, jakou maj\u00ed por\u00e9znost a celkovou \u00fa\u010dinnost. Kolik lid\u00ed je k\u00a0onemocn\u011bn\u00ed n\u00e1chyln\u00fdch, kolik lid\u00ed je naka\u017eliv\u00fdch a kolik jich je uzdraveno nebo mrtvo, ale i kolik jich m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b imunn\u00edch.Zn\u00ed to jednodu\u0161e, ale chyby v kter\u00e9mkoli z t\u011bchto odhad\u016f mohou posunout v\u00fdsledek \u00fapln\u011b n\u011bkam jinam. Nap\u0159\u00edklad na podzim roku 2014 v\u011bdci p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dali, \u017ee p\u0159i propuknut\u00ed eboly v z\u00e1padn\u00ed Africe, by mohl b\u00fdt po\u010det naka\u017een\u00fdch koncem ledna 550 000 a\u017e 1,4 milionu v Lib\u00e9rii a Sierra Leone, ale jeliko\u017e byli pacienti izolov\u00e1ni, byly p\u0159edpoklady nep\u0159esn\u00e9, proto\u017ee po\u010det p\u0159\u00edpad\u016f byl udr\u017een jen na 28\u00a0600.Pro v\u00fdpo\u010det v\u00fdvoje v\u011bdci berou v \u00favahu kolik lid\u00ed je naka\u017een\u00fdch, kolik jich je infek\u010dn\u00edch a kolik pacient\u016f je uzdraven\u00fdch a pop\u0159\u00edpad\u011b mrtv\u00fdch. V\u011bdci p\u00ed\u0161ou rovnice, kter\u00e9 zahrnuj\u00ed takov\u00e9 faktory, jako je po\u010det sekund\u00e1rn\u00edch infekc\u00ed ka\u017ed\u00e9 infikovan\u00e9 osoby, jak dlouho to trv\u00e1 od chv\u00edle, kdy jedna osoba onemocn\u00ed, a\u017e po okam\u017eik kdy ostatn\u00ed lidi nakaz\u00ed. Tato dv\u011b \u010d\u00edsla toti\u017e ukazuj\u00ed rychlost r\u016fstu epidemie.Aby se modely staly realisti\u010dt\u011bj\u0161\u00edmi, je t\u0159eba se zbavit p\u0159edpokladu, \u017ee, ka\u017ed\u00fd m\u00e1 stejnou pravd\u011bpodobnost, \u017ee onemocn\u00ed pot\u00e9, co p\u0159ijde do kontaktu s n\u011bk\u00fdm, kdo ji\u017e byl infikov\u00e1n.T\u011bla m\u016f\u017eou na infekci reagovat odli\u0161n\u011b, co\u017e zase m\u016f\u017ee usnadnit nebo zt\u00ed\u017eit p\u0159enos viru a samoz\u0159ejm\u011b, \u017ee d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 je chov\u00e1n\u00ed pacient\u016f. M\u016f\u017eete si dovolit z\u016fstat n\u011bkolik dn\u00ed doma nebo chodit do pr\u00e1ce, i kdy\u017e jste nemocn\u00ed? Kolik lid\u00ed potk\u00e1te ka\u017ed\u00fd den? \u017dijete s\u00e1m? Doj\u00ed\u017ed\u00edte autem nebo hromadnou dopravou?Toto v\u0161e m\u00e1 vliv na pravd\u011bpodobnost, \u017ee se ohnisko nakonec omez\u00ed, nebo ohnisko nem\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt potla\u010deno a my se mus\u00edme p\u0159ipravit na pandemii.Princip model\u016f v\u00a0po\u010d\u00edta\u010di je zalo\u017een na simulaci vymy\u0161len\u00e9ho jedince, n\u011bkdy i des\u00edtky milion\u016f jedinc\u016f, kte\u0159\u00ed proch\u00e1zej\u00ed kolem sebe navz\u00e1jem. To vy\u017eaduje zn\u00e1t v\u011bci, nap\u0159\u00edklad kolik lid\u00ed doj\u00ed\u017ed\u00ed z\u00a0m\u00edsta na m\u00edsto, kam jezd\u00ed, zda do pr\u00e1ce nebo do \u0161koly, jak cestuj\u00ed, kam a jak \u010dasto nakupuj\u00ed, zda je obvykl\u00e9 nav\u0161t\u011bvovat nemocn\u00e9, a dal\u0161\u00ed kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e9 podrobnosti. Po\u010d\u00edta\u010de pak simuluj\u00ed pohyby a vz\u00e1jemn\u00e9 ovliv\u0148ov\u00e1n\u00ed, nap\u0159\u00edklad t\u00edm, \u017ee za\u010d\u00ednaj\u00ed s jednou infikovanou osobou, kter\u00e1 r\u00e1no opou\u0161t\u00ed domov, pak hovo\u0159\u00ed s\u00a0ostatn\u00edmi nap\u0159\u00edklad ve \u0161kole, pokra\u010duje v cest\u011b autobusem, stoj\u00ed 50 cm od z\u00e1kazn\u00edk\u016f v\u00a0obchod\u011b a od sv\u00fdch koleg\u016f v pr\u00e1ci a nav\u0161t\u011bvuj\u00ed l\u00e9k\u00e1rnu i z\u00a0d\u016fvodu \u00fapln\u011b jin\u00fdch nemoc\u00ed.Pokud jde o rychlost p\u0159enosu, kterou epidemiologov\u00e9 naz\u00fdvaj\u00ed \u201ez\u00e1kladn\u00ed reproduk\u010dn\u00ed \u010d\u00edslo\u201c, p\u0159edpokl\u00e1d\u00e1 se, \u017ee pro koronavirus je mezi 2 a\u017e 3, co\u017e znamen\u00e1, \u017ee jedna osoba infikuje dv\u011b a\u017e t\u0159i osoby.Na z\u00e1v\u011br \u010dl\u00e1nku d\u011bkujeme, \u017ee \u010cesk\u00e1 vl\u00e1da ozn\u00e1mila 10. b\u0159ezna drastick\u00e1 opat\u0159en\u00ed k omezen\u00ed \u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed nemoci COVID-19, kterou 11. b\u0159ezna vyhl\u00e1sila Sv\u011btov\u00e1 zdravotnick\u00e1 organizace (WHO) za pandemii, av\u0161ak mus\u00edme si uv\u011bdomit, \u017ee jsme teprve na za\u010d\u00e1tku a \u010ceskou republiku \u010dek\u00e1 je\u0161t\u011b hodn\u011b naka\u017een\u00fdch osob.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        3.7\/5 - (10 votes)        "},{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org\/","@type":"BreadcrumbList","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Po\u010d\u00edta\u010de modeluj\u00ed budoucnost koronaviru.","item":"https:\/\/www.isale.cz\/pocitace-modeluji-budoucnost-koronaviru\/#breadcrumbitem"}]}]